近日，中国银河证券发布最新市场展望报告，指出2026年港股市场有望呈现震荡上行的走势。报告认为，尽管全球经济仍面临不确定性，包括地缘政治紧张、通胀压力及货币政策分化等因素，但随着中国经济稳步复苏、企业盈利改善以及估值处于历史低位，港股具备较强的中长期配置价值。银河证券分析指出，2026年港股的上行动力主要来自三方面：一是内地经济政策持续发力，财政与货币协同支持将增强市场信心；二是美联储加息周期或已接近尾声，全球流动性环境有望边际改善，利好新兴市场资产；三是港股通机制不断优化，南向资金持续流入，为市场提供稳定支撑。不过，报告也提醒投资者需警惕短期波动风险，如外部冲击、市场情绪反复等。银河证券建议投资者采取“逢低布局、均衡配置”的策略，重点关注高股息、科技成长及受益于内需复苏的板块。总体来看，2026年港股虽难一帆风顺，但在多重积极因素推动下，有望在震荡中实现温和上涨。
Recently, China Galaxy Securities released its latest market outlook report, suggesting that the Hong Kong stock market is poised for a volatile yet upward trajectory in 2026. The report notes that despite ongoing global uncertainties—including geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and divergent monetary policies—the Hong Kong market offers strong medium- to long-term investment value, supported by China’s steady economic recovery, improving corporate earnings, and historically low valuations.According to Galaxy Securities, three key drivers will underpin the market’s upward momentum in 2026: First, sustained policy support from mainland China, with coordinated fiscal and monetary measures boosting investor confidence; second, the likely end of the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle, which could lead to improved global liquidity conditions favorable to emerging markets; and third, continuous enhancements to the Stock Connect mechanism, facilitating steady inflows of southbound capital from mainland investors.Nevertheless, the report cautions investors to remain mindful of short-term volatility risks, such as external shocks and shifting market sentiment. Galaxy Securities recommends a strategy of “buying on dips and maintaining a balanced portfolio,” with a focus on high-dividend stocks, technology growth sectors, and companies benefiting from domestic consumption recovery. Overall, while 2026 may bring turbulence, the Hong Kong market is expected to achieve modest gains amid supportive fundamentals.
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