近期，中信建投证券发布研究报告指出，人民币升值的大趋势尚未结束。报告认为，尽管短期内受美联储加息预期、美元走强等因素影响，人民币汇率出现一定波动，但从中长期来看，支撑人民币走强的基本面因素依然稳固。首先，中国经济持续复苏，出口保持韧性，贸易顺差维持高位，为人民币提供了坚实支撑。其次，中美利差有望逐步收窄，随着中国货币政策保持稳健、美国加息周期接近尾声，资本流入中国的动力增强。此外，人民币国际化进程稳步推进，境外投资者对人民币资产的配置需求持续上升，也进一步增强了人民币的吸引力。中信建投强调，市场不应过度关注短期波动，而应着眼于经济基本面和政策导向所决定的中长期走势。综合判断，人民币仍具备温和升值的基础和空间。
Recently, China Securities Co., Ltd. (CSC) released a research report stating that the broader trend of RMB appreciation has not yet ended. The report acknowledges that while short-term fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate have occurred due to factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and a stronger U.S. dollar, the fundamental drivers supporting RMB strength remain solid over the medium to long term. First, China’s economy continues to recover steadily, exports remain resilient, and the trade surplus stays robust—providing strong underlying support for the RMB. Second, the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is expected to narrow gradually, as China maintains a prudent monetary policy and the U.S. nears the end of its rate-hiking cycle, thereby boosting capital inflows into China. Additionally, the steady progress of RMB internationalization and rising global demand for RMB-denominated assets are further enhancing the currency’s appeal. CSC emphasizes that market participants should not overreact to short-term volatility but instead focus on the medium- to long-term trajectory shaped by economic fundamentals and policy direction. Overall, the RMB still has room for moderate appreciation.
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