7月10日，沪铜期货主力合约日内大幅上涨4%，收于每吨72,500元附近，创下近一个月来的新高。此次上涨主要受到多重利好因素推动：一方面，市场对国内稳增长政策持续加码的预期升温，尤其是近期关于房地产和基建领域可能出台更多支持措施的消息提振了工业金属需求前景；另一方面，全球铜供应趋紧的担忧再度浮现，秘鲁等主要产铜国的矿山扰动以及库存持续下降，进一步强化了多头信心。此外，美元指数走弱也对以美元计价的大宗商品构成支撑，间接推高了人民币计价的沪铜价格。技术面上，沪铜突破关键阻力位后，短线动能增强，部分机构已上调短期目标价。不过，分析师也提醒，当前全球经济复苏仍面临不确定性，若后续宏观数据不及预期或美联储释放鹰派信号，铜价可能面临回调压力。投资者宜关注晚间公布的美国CPI数据及LME库存变化，以判断短期走势。
On July 10, the main contract of Shanghai copper futures surged by 4% intraday, closing near RMB 72,500 per ton—the highest level in nearly a month. The rally was driven by multiple bullish factors: first, growing market expectations of intensified domestic stimulus measures, particularly rumors of additional support for China’s real estate and infrastructure sectors, have bolstered demand outlook for industrial metals; second, renewed concerns over tightening global copper supply—stemming from mining disruptions in major producers like Peru and persistently declining exchange inventories—have strengthened bullish sentiment. Additionally, a weaker U.S. dollar provided indirect support to yuan-denominated copper prices, as it typically lifts dollar-priced commodities. Technically, copper broke above a key resistance level, enhancing short-term momentum, prompting some institutions to raise their near-term price targets. However, analysts caution that global economic recovery remains uncertain. Should upcoming macroeconomic data disappoint or the Federal Reserve adopt a more hawkish stance, copper prices could face downward pressure. Traders are advised to closely monitor the U.S. CPI data release later today and changes in LME copper inventory for short-term directional cues.
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