CRFB（美国尽责联邦预算委员会）近期警告称，美国不断膨胀的债务规模可能成为一枚“财政核弹”，若不及时控制，或将引爆六大系统性危机。首先，巨额债务将推高利息支出，挤压教育、医疗和国防等关键公共支出；其次，长期赤字削弱政府应对经济衰退或突发危机的能力；第三，债务负担加重可能引发市场对美国偿债能力的担忧，导致美债收益率飙升、美元贬值；第四，高债务水平限制了未来财政政策的灵活性；第五，代际不公平问题加剧，年轻一代将承担沉重的偿债成本；第六，若债务失控，可能触发全球金融动荡，因美债被视为全球金融体系的“安全资产”。CRFB呼吁国会采取结构性改革，包括控制支出、增加税收或两者结合，以稳定债务与GDP比率，避免系统性风险爆发。
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) recently warned that America’s ballooning national debt could act as a ‘fiscal nuclear bomb,’ potentially triggering six systemic crises if left unchecked. First, massive debt increases interest payments, crowding out essential public spending on education, healthcare, and defense. Second, persistent deficits weaken the government’s capacity to respond to recessions or emergencies. Third, rising debt burdens may spark market concerns about U.S. solvency, leading to surging Treasury yields and dollar depreciation. Fourth, high debt levels severely constrain future fiscal policy flexibility. Fifth, intergenerational inequity worsens, as younger generations inherit unsustainable repayment obligations. Sixth, uncontrolled debt could ignite global financial instability, given that U.S. Treasuries are considered the bedrock of the global financial system. The CRFB urges Congress to implement structural reforms—such as spending controls, revenue increases, or a combination—to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio and avert systemic risk.
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