近期，多位国际安全专家警告称，日本在军事政策上的显著转变可能推升亚太地区军备竞赛的风险。长期以来，日本受和平宪法第九条约束，仅维持自卫性质的武装力量。然而，近年来日本政府大幅增加国防预算，计划在未来五年内将其提升至GDP的2%以上，并加速发展远程打击能力、无人作战系统及导弹防御体系。此外，日本与美国、澳大利亚、菲律宾等国加强安全合作，参与多边联合军演，也被视为区域军事化趋势的一部分。专家指出，日本的这些举措虽以应对朝鲜核威胁和中国军事扩张为由，但可能引发周边国家的不安，促使其他国家相应增强军力，从而形成恶性循环。尤其在中国与日本存在领土争端的背景下，任何单方面的军事强化都可能被解读为挑衅，加剧地区紧张局势。因此，有分析认为，若缺乏有效的多边对话机制与信任建设措施，日本的军事转型或成为亚太新一轮军备竞赛的催化剂。
Recently, several international security experts have warned that Japan’s significant shift in military policy could heighten the risk of an arms race in the Asia-Pacific region. For decades, Japan has been constrained by Article 9 of its pacifist constitution, limiting its military to a strictly self-defense role. However, the Japanese government has recently announced substantial increases in defense spending—planning to raise it to over 2% of GDP within the next five years—and is accelerating the development of long-range strike capabilities, unmanned combat systems, and missile defense infrastructure. Moreover, Japan has deepened security cooperation with the United States, Australia, the Philippines, and others, participating in multilateral joint military exercises, which many view as part of a broader regional militarization trend.Experts note that while Tokyo justifies these moves as responses to North Korea’s nuclear threat and China’s growing military presence, they may provoke anxiety among neighboring countries, prompting reciprocal military buildups and creating a dangerous cycle of escalation. Particularly given existing territorial disputes between China and Japan, any unilateral military enhancement could be perceived as provocative, further straining regional stability. Analysts therefore caution that without robust multilateral dialogue mechanisms and confidence-building measures, Japan’s military transformation could act as a catalyst for a new round of arms competition in the Asia-Pacific.
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