根据美国财政部最新公布的数据，截至2023年11月，海外投资者持有的美国国债总额达到7.9万亿美元，创下历史新高。这一数字不仅反映了全球对美国国债作为避险资产的持续信任，也凸显了美元在全球金融体系中的主导地位。推动海外持有美债上升的主要因素包括：一是美联储持续加息使美债收益率处于高位，增强了其对国际投资者的吸引力；二是地缘政治紧张局势和全球经济不确定性促使资金流向被视为‘安全港’的美国国债；三是部分主要债权国如日本和中国在调整外汇储备配置时，仍维持或小幅增持美债。值得注意的是，尽管中国近年来逐步减持美债以实现外汇储备多元化，但日本仍为美国最大的海外债权国，其持有量在11月继续增长。此外，一些新兴市场国家和石油出口国也在增加对美债的配置，以稳定本国外汇储备并获取相对稳健的收益。总体来看，海外对美债的强劲需求支撑了美国财政融资能力，但也反映出全球金融体系对美元的高度依赖。未来，若美国财政赤字持续扩大或全球去美元化趋势加速，可能对这一格局构成挑战。
According to the latest data released by the U.S. Treasury, foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities reached a record high of $7.9 trillion as of November 2023. This figure not only underscores the continued global confidence in U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset but also highlights the dominant role of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system.Key drivers behind this increase include: first, the Federal Reserve’s sustained interest rate hikes have kept Treasury yields elevated, making them more attractive to international investors; second, geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty have prompted capital flows into U.S. Treasuries, widely regarded as a ‘safe haven’; and third, major creditor nations like Japan and China have maintained or slightly increased their U.S. debt holdings while adjusting their foreign exchange reserve allocations.Notably, although China has gradually reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings in recent years to diversify its reserves, Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, with its holdings continuing to rise in November. Additionally, several emerging market economies and oil-exporting nations have also increased their allocations to U.S. Treasuries to stabilize their foreign reserves and secure relatively stable returns.Overall, strong foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries supports America’s fiscal financing capacity but also reflects the global financial system’s heavy reliance on the U.S. dollar. This dynamic could face challenges in the future if U.S. fiscal deficits continue to widen or if global de-dollarization trends accelerate.
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