广发证券近期发布题为《化工周期供需破晓》的深度研究报告，指出当前化工行业正迎来新一轮周期拐点。报告认为，随着全球能源结构转型、国内产能出清以及下游需求逐步回暖，化工品供需格局正在发生积极变化。一方面，过去几年行业持续扩产导致的供给过剩问题已显著缓解，部分细分领域甚至出现结构性紧缺；另一方面，新能源、新材料等新兴下游产业对高端化工产品的需求快速增长，推动行业向高附加值方向升级。此外，环保政策趋严与碳中和目标也加速了落后产能退出，进一步优化了行业竞争格局。广发证券预计，在供需再平衡与成本支撑增强的双重驱动下，化工板块有望进入上行通道，建议重点关注具备技术壁垒、一体化布局及绿色低碳转型能力的龙头企业。
Guangfa Securities recently released an in-depth research report titled ‘Dawn of a New Supply-Demand Cycle in the Chemical Industry,’ indicating that the sector is approaching a turning point in its cyclical trajectory. The report highlights that a favorable shift in supply-demand dynamics is underway, driven by global energy transition, domestic capacity rationalization, and gradual recovery in downstream demand. On the supply side, overcapacity issues from previous years have significantly eased, with certain sub-sectors even experiencing structural shortages. Meanwhile, emerging downstream industries—such as new energy and advanced materials—are fueling robust demand for high-end chemical products, propelling the industry toward higher value-added segments. Additionally, stricter environmental regulations and China’s carbon neutrality goals are accelerating the phase-out of outdated capacities, further improving the competitive landscape. Guangfa Securities anticipates that, supported by rebalancing fundamentals and stronger cost floors, the chemical sector is poised for an upward cycle and recommends focusing on leading companies with technological advantages, integrated operations, and strong capabilities in green and low-carbon transformation.
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