近期，摩根大通（小摩）发布最新市场展望报告，警告美股当前的上涨势头可能面临停滞。该行指出，尽管美股在2024年上半年表现强劲，主要指数屡创新高，但多重风险因素正在积聚，包括高企的估值水平、持续的通胀压力、美联储政策路径的不确定性，以及地缘政治紧张局势加剧等。小摩分析师强调，标普500指数目前的远期市盈率已高于历史均值，反映出市场对盈利增长的乐观预期可能过于激进。若企业盈利无法兑现预期，或美联储推迟降息甚至重启加息，股市或将遭遇回调。此外，美国大选临近也可能带来政策不确定性和市场波动。尽管如此，小摩并未建议全面撤出股市，而是建议投资者转向更具防御性的板块，如公用事业、医疗保健和必需消费品，并适度增加现金配置以应对潜在波动。总体而言，小摩认为美股短期内或进入盘整阶段，投资者应保持谨慎，避免过度追高。
Recently, JPMorgan Chase (JPMorgan) issued a new market outlook report warning that the current rally in U.S. equities may stall. The bank noted that although U.S. stocks have performed strongly in the first half of 2024—with major indices repeatedly hitting record highs—multiple risk factors are accumulating, including elevated valuations, persistent inflationary pressures, uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s policy path, and escalating geopolitical tensions.JPMorgan analysts emphasized that the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio is now above its historical average, suggesting market expectations for earnings growth may be overly optimistic. If corporate earnings fail to meet these expectations, or if the Fed delays rate cuts—or even resumes hiking—equity markets could face a pullback. Additionally, the approaching U.S. presidential election may introduce further policy uncertainty and market volatility.Despite these concerns, JPMorgan does not recommend a full exit from equities. Instead, it advises investors to shift toward more defensive sectors such as utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples, and to moderately increase cash allocations to navigate potential turbulence. Overall, JPMorgan expects U.S. stocks to enter a consolidation phase in the near term, urging investors to remain cautious and avoid chasing high valuations.
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