近期，多家券商和研究机构指出，A股市场2024年的‘春季躁动’行情已提前启动。所谓‘春季躁动’，通常指每年年初至两会前后，受政策预期、流动性宽松及风险偏好回升等因素推动，A股往往出现阶段性上涨行情。今年这一现象尤为显著：自2023年12月下旬起，市场便在稳增长政策加码、美联储加息周期接近尾声以及国内经济数据边际改善等多重利好支撑下逐步回暖。分析人士认为，当前市场具备春季躁动的典型特征：一是政策面持续释放积极信号，包括中央经济工作会议定调‘稳中求进’，多地出台促消费、稳地产措施；二是资金面相对宽松，年末财政支出加快叠加央行适度投放流动性，为市场提供支撑；三是投资者情绪逐步修复，北向资金连续净流入，显示外资对A股信心增强。不过，机构也提醒，春季躁动虽具历史规律性，但持续性和幅度仍受外部环境、企业盈利修复节奏等因素制约。投资者应关注政策落地效果与基本面改善信号，避免盲目追高，合理配置资产。
Recently, multiple securities firms and research institutions have noted that the A-share market’s traditional ‘Spring Rally’ for 2024 has started earlier than usual. The ‘Spring Rally’ typically refers to a seasonal uptrend in China’s A-share market between early January and the period surrounding the annual Two Sessions (China’s top legislative meetings), driven by factors such as positive policy expectations, accommodative liquidity, and rising risk appetite. This year, the rally is particularly evident: since late December 2023, the market has gradually rebounded, supported by intensified pro-growth policies, signals that the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle is nearing its end, and marginal improvements in domestic economic data.Analysts point out that current market conditions exhibit classic signs of a Spring Rally: first, consistent positive signals from policymakers—including the Central Economic Work Conference’s emphasis on ‘stability while seeking progress’ and local governments rolling out measures to boost consumption and stabilize the property sector; second, relatively loose liquidity conditions, fueled by accelerated fiscal spending at year-end and moderate liquidity injections by the People’s Bank of China; and third, improving investor sentiment, reflected in consecutive net inflows of northbound capital, indicating growing foreign investor confidence in A-shares.However, institutions caution that while the Spring Rally follows historical patterns, its sustainability and magnitude still depend on external conditions and the pace of corporate earnings recovery. Investors are advised to monitor policy implementation effectiveness and fundamental improvements, avoid chasing rallies blindly, and maintain balanced asset allocation.
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