2024年一季度，港股市场迎来“开门红”，恒生指数在多重利好因素推动下稳步上扬。一方面，美联储加息周期接近尾声，全球流动性预期改善，提振了包括港股在内的风险资产表现；另一方面，中国经济温和复苏，政策支持力度加大，特别是对房地产、消费和科技行业的扶持措施，增强了投资者信心。此外，南向资金持续流入，外资回流迹象初显，也为港股提供了有力支撑。展望后市，若内地经济数据继续回暖、企业盈利预期改善，叠加全球利率环境趋于宽松，港股“开门红”的势头有望延续。不过，外部地缘政治风险、美元走势以及部分行业结构性挑战仍需关注。整体而言，在估值处于历史低位、股息率具有吸引力的背景下，港股中长期配置价值正逐步显现。
In the first quarter of 2024, Hong Kong’s stock market achieved a strong ‘red start,’ with the Hang Seng Index rising steadily amid multiple supportive factors. On one hand, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking cycle appears to be nearing its end, improving global liquidity expectations and boosting risk assets like Hong Kong equities. On the other hand, China’s economy is showing signs of a mild recovery, backed by stronger policy support—particularly in real estate, consumer spending, and the tech sector—which has bolstered investor confidence. Additionally, consistent inflows from southbound capital under the Stock Connect programs and early signs of foreign capital returning have provided further support.Looking ahead, if China’s economic data continues to improve and corporate earnings expectations strengthen—combined with a gradually more accommodative global interest rate environment—the positive momentum seen in Q1 could extend into the coming months. However, risks such as geopolitical tensions, U.S. dollar volatility, and structural challenges in certain sectors warrant caution. Overall, given Hong Kong equities’ historically low valuations and attractive dividend yields, their medium- to long-term investment appeal is becoming increasingly evident.
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