近期，多家券商和研究机构发布报告指出，A股市场有望迎来一轮跨年‘春季行情’。所谓‘春季行情’，通常指每年岁末年初至次年一季度期间，A股因政策利好、流动性宽松、年报预期等因素推动而出现的阶段性上涨行情。今年，随着国内经济持续复苏、稳增长政策加码以及美联储加息周期接近尾声，市场风险偏好明显回升。此外，中央经济工作会议释放出积极信号，强调扩大内需、支持科技创新和稳定资本市场，进一步增强了投资者信心。部分机构认为，当前A股估值仍处于历史低位，具备较高安全边际，叠加年末资金面季节性改善，为春季行情提供了良好基础。不过，也有分析提醒，外部地缘政治风险及全球经济不确定性仍可能对市场构成扰动，投资者应保持理性，关注结构性机会，如高端制造、新能源、消费复苏等板块。
Recently, multiple securities firms and research institutions have released reports suggesting that China’s A-share market may experience a year-end to early-spring rally—commonly referred to as the ‘Spring Rally.’ This seasonal uptrend typically occurs between late December and the first quarter of the following year, driven by supportive government policies, ample liquidity, and positive earnings expectations. This year, factors such as sustained domestic economic recovery, intensified pro-growth policy measures, and the nearing end of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking cycle have significantly boosted market sentiment. Moreover, the recent Central Economic Work Conference sent strong positive signals, emphasizing the need to expand domestic demand, support technological innovation, and stabilize capital markets—further bolstering investor confidence. Some institutions note that A-share valuations remain at historically low levels, offering a solid margin of safety, while seasonal improvements in year-end liquidity create favorable conditions for a Spring Rally. However, analysts also caution that external geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainties could still pose headwinds. Investors are advised to remain prudent and focus on structural opportunities in sectors such as advanced manufacturing, new energy, and consumer recovery.
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