根据最新市场数据，交易员普遍预期美联储将在2023年12月的货币政策会议上降息25个基点，这一概率高达89.4%。该预期主要基于近期美国通胀数据持续回落、劳动力市场出现降温迹象，以及全球经济放缓带来的下行压力。CME集团的‘美联储观察’工具显示，利率期货市场的定价强烈倾向于美联储转向宽松立场。值得注意的是，尽管此前美联储官员多次强调‘更高更久’（higher for longer）的利率路径，但近期部分官员的讲话已显露出对过度紧缩风险的关注。若12月确实降息，这将是本轮加息周期结束后的首次政策转向，标志着货币政策从抑制通胀转向支持经济增长。然而，投资者仍需谨慎对待这一预期。美联储的决策高度依赖即将公布的经济数据，尤其是11月和12月初的非农就业报告与消费者物价指数（CPI）。若数据意外走强，降息预期可能迅速降温。因此，尽管当前市场押注强烈，但最终结果仍存在变数。
According to the latest market data, traders widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 2023 monetary policy meeting, with a probability as high as 89.4%. This expectation is primarily driven by persistently cooling U.S. inflation data, signs of a softening labor market, and mounting downside risks from a slowing global economy. The CME Group’s ‘FedWatch Tool’ shows that interest rate futures markets are strongly pricing in a shift toward a more dovish stance by the Fed.Notably, although Fed officials have repeatedly emphasized a ‘higher for longer’ interest rate path, recent comments from some policymakers have shown growing concern about the risks of overtightening. If the Fed does cut rates in December, it would mark the first policy pivot since the end of its current hiking cycle—signaling a strategic shift from fighting inflation to supporting economic growth.However, investors should remain cautious. The Fed’s decision remains highly data-dependent, particularly on upcoming economic releases such as the November and early-December nonfarm payrolls and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports. Stronger-than-expected data could quickly dampen rate-cut expectations. Thus, despite the current strong market consensus, the final outcome still carries significant uncertainty.
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