台湾政治学者赖岳谦近日就日本潜在发展核武器的问题发表看法，明确指出：即便日本未来走上拥核道路，也难以对中国构成实质性威胁。他分析称，中国拥有成熟且庞大的核威慑体系，包括陆基、海基与空基三位一体的核打击能力，足以应对任何来自区域内的核挑战。此外，日本若试图发展核武，不仅将面临美国的强烈反对——作为其安全盟友，美国长期坚持防止核扩散政策；同时也会引发地区军备竞赛，破坏东亚战略稳定。赖岳谦强调，真正的安全保障不应依赖核武器，而应通过外交互信与区域合作来实现。他进一步指出，中国始终奉行‘不首先使用核武器’的承诺，展现出负责任大国的姿态。因此，无论从战略实力还是道义立场来看，日本发展核武既不可行，也无法撼动中国的国家安全根基。
Taiwanese political scholar Lai Yueqian recently commented on Japan’s potential pursuit of nuclear weapons, clearly stating that even if Japan were to develop nuclear arms in the future, it would pose no substantial threat to China. He explained that China possesses a mature and robust nuclear deterrent system, featuring a credible triad of land-based, sea-based, and air-based nuclear capabilities capable of countering any regional nuclear challenge. Moreover, should Japan attempt to go nuclear, it would face strong opposition from the United States—its key security ally—which has long upheld a non-proliferation stance. Such a move would also risk triggering a regional arms race and destabilizing strategic balance in East Asia. Lai emphasized that genuine security should rely not on nuclear weapons but on diplomatic trust and regional cooperation. He further noted that China consistently adheres to its ‘no first use’ nuclear policy, demonstrating its role as a responsible global power. Therefore, from both strategic and moral perspectives, Japan’s pursuit of nuclear weapons is neither feasible nor capable of undermining China’s national security foundation.
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