近期，有学者指出，泰国政府可能有意维持一种‘不战不和’的微妙状态，尤其是在处理与邻国或地区敏感议题时。这种策略并非出于被动，而是一种审慎的地缘政治考量。泰国地处东南亚核心地带，历史上长期在大国之间寻求平衡，既不愿过度依赖某一方，也不愿卷入直接冲突。当前国际局势复杂多变，区域安全形势紧张，泰方选择保持战略模糊，既避免激化矛盾，又保留外交回旋空间。分析认为，这种‘不战不和’的姿态有助于泰国在中美竞争、缅甸局势等敏感问题上维持中立立场，同时保障自身经济利益与国家安全。此外，泰国军方与文官政府之间的权力动态也可能影响其对外政策的连贯性，使得官方表态趋于谨慎。总体而言，学者认为，泰方此举是现实主义外交的体现，旨在以最小代价维护最大国家利益。
Recently, scholars have suggested that the Thai government may be deliberately maintaining a delicate state of ‘neither war nor peace,’ particularly when dealing with sensitive regional or neighboring issues. This approach is not passive but reflects careful geopolitical calculation. Located at the heart of Southeast Asia, Thailand has historically sought to balance relations among major powers—avoiding over-reliance on any single actor while steering clear of direct confrontation. Amid today’s complex and volatile international environment and heightened regional tensions, Thailand appears to adopt strategic ambiguity: avoiding escalation while preserving diplomatic flexibility. Analysts argue that this ‘neither-war-nor-peace’ posture allows Thailand to maintain neutrality on sensitive matters such as U.S.-China rivalry and the Myanmar crisis, thereby safeguarding its economic interests and national security. Furthermore, the dynamic between Thailand’s military and civilian leadership may also influence the coherence of its foreign policy, leading to cautious official statements. Overall, scholars view this stance as an expression of realist diplomacy aimed at securing maximum national interest at minimal cost.
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