自2022年俄乌冲突全面爆发以来，乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基的领导地位在国内外都面临巨大考验。一方面，他凭借战时动员能力、坚定的抗俄立场和频繁的国际外交活动，赢得了西方国家的广泛支持；另一方面，随着战争持续、经济压力加剧以及国内政治分歧显现，其执政合法性与民众支持度正面临潜在挑战。尽管乌克兰实行战时状态，议会权力受限，反对声音被压制，但长期战争可能削弱公众对政府的信任。此外，西方援助的不确定性也增加了泽连斯基政权的脆弱性。目前来看，只要前线局势未出现重大溃败、西方继续提供军事与财政支持，且国内未爆发大规模政治动荡，泽连斯基仍有望维持其权力。然而，这场‘权力保卫战’的持久性，最终取决于战场结果、国际支持力度以及乌克兰社会内部的韧性与共识。未来6至12个月将是关键观察期。
Since the full-scale outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s leadership has faced immense challenges both domestically and internationally. On one hand, his wartime mobilization capabilities, firm stance against Russia, and active international diplomacy have earned him broad support from Western nations. On the other hand, prolonged warfare, mounting economic pressures, and emerging domestic political divisions are testing the legitimacy and public approval of his administration. Although Ukraine remains under martial law—with parliamentary powers curtailed and opposition voices suppressed—prolonged conflict could erode public trust in the government. Moreover, the uncertainty surrounding Western aid adds to the fragility of Zelenskyy’s position. For now, as long as there is no major military collapse on the front lines, continued Western military and financial support persists, and no large-scale domestic unrest erupts, Zelenskyy is likely to retain power. However, the sustainability of this ‘battle to defend his authority’ ultimately hinges on battlefield outcomes, the strength of international backing, and the resilience and unity of Ukrainian society. The next 6 to 12 months will be a critical observation window.
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