近期，方正证券发布研究报告指出，煤炭行业长期存在的供大于求局面有望迎来实质性扭转。报告分析认为，随着国内经济稳步复苏、能源结构优化持续推进，以及国家对煤炭产能的科学调控，煤炭供需关系正在逐步改善。一方面，下游电力、钢铁、建材等主要用煤行业需求回暖，带动煤炭消费量回升；另一方面，国家严格执行煤炭产能置换政策，加快淘汰落后产能，并限制新增产能审批，有效控制了供给端的无序扩张。此外，极端天气频发和可再生能源出力不稳也促使火电在能源保供中发挥更重要作用，进一步支撑煤炭需求。方正证券预计，未来一段时间内，煤炭价格将趋于稳定甚至温和上行，行业盈利能力和景气度有望持续提升。这一趋势不仅有利于煤炭企业改善经营状况，也为相关产业链带来新的投资机会。
Recently, Founder Securities released a research report indicating that the long-standing oversupply situation in the coal industry is poised for a substantive turnaround. The report notes that with China’s steady economic recovery, ongoing optimization of the energy mix, and scientifically managed coal production capacity by the government, the supply-demand balance in the coal sector is gradually improving. On the demand side, key downstream sectors such as power generation, steel, and construction materials are showing signs of recovery, driving up coal consumption. On the supply side, strict enforcement of capacity replacement policies, accelerated phase-out of outdated production facilities, and tighter controls on new capacity approvals have effectively curbed uncontrolled supply expansion. Moreover, frequent extreme weather events and the intermittency of renewable energy sources have reinforced the role of thermal power in ensuring energy security, further supporting coal demand. Founder Securities forecasts that coal prices will stabilize or even rise moderately in the near term, leading to sustained improvement in industry profitability and overall market sentiment. This trend not only benefits coal producers’ operational performance but also creates new investment opportunities across the related industrial chain.
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