宏利投资管理（Manulife Investment Management）近期发布观点，建议在今年高配新兴市场债券。该机构认为，尽管全球经济面临不确定性，但新兴市场债券在估值、收益率和基本面方面展现出较强吸引力。首先，当前新兴市场主权债的收益率普遍高于发达市场，为投资者提供了更具吸引力的风险溢价。其次，许多新兴市场经济体已加强财政纪律，外债水平趋于稳定，外汇储备充足，抗风险能力增强。此外，随着美联储加息周期接近尾声，美元走强压力缓解，有利于资金回流新兴市场。宏利特别看好亚洲和部分拉丁美洲国家的本币及硬通货债券，认为其信用质量改善且政策框架更趋稳健。不过，宏利也提醒投资者需关注地缘政治风险、大宗商品价格波动以及个别国家的债务可持续性问题。总体而言，在多元化配置和风险可控的前提下，新兴市场债券可作为提升组合收益的重要工具。
Manulife Investment Management recently recommended an overweight position in emerging market bonds for this year. The firm believes that despite global economic uncertainties, emerging market debt offers compelling value in terms of valuation, yield, and fundamentals. Firstly, yields on emerging market sovereign bonds remain significantly higher than those in developed markets, offering attractive risk premiums. Secondly, many emerging economies have strengthened fiscal discipline, stabilized external debt levels, and built up ample foreign exchange reserves, enhancing their resilience to shocks. Additionally, as the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle nears its end, pressure from a strong U.S. dollar is easing, which could support capital flows back into emerging markets. Manulife is particularly positive on local-currency and hard-currency bonds from select Asian and Latin American countries, citing improved credit quality and more robust policy frameworks. However, the firm also cautions investors to remain mindful of geopolitical risks, commodity price volatility, and debt sustainability concerns in certain countries. Overall, within a diversified and risk-managed portfolio, emerging market bonds can serve as a valuable tool for enhancing returns.
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