“十五五”时期（2026—2030年）是我国全面建设社会主义现代化国家的关键阶段，必须统筹中华民族伟大复兴战略全局和世界百年未有之大变局这“两个大局”。从国内看，我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段，需加快构建新发展格局，推动科技自立自强、绿色低碳转型和共同富裕。从国际看，全球地缘政治格局深刻演变，科技竞争加剧，产业链供应链加速重构，外部环境的不确定性显著上升。在此背景下，“十五五”战略谋划应坚持系统观念，强化底线思维，以高水平安全支撑高质量发展。一方面，要深化改革开放，激发内需潜力，提升产业链韧性；另一方面，要积极参与全球治理，推动构建人类命运共同体，增强我国在国际规则制定中的话语权。只有统筹好两个大局，才能在复杂变局中把握战略主动，确保“十五五”目标顺利实现，为2035年基本实现社会主义现代化奠定坚实基础。
The ’15th Five-Year Plan’ period (2026–2030) represents a critical phase in China’s comprehensive drive to build a modern socialist country. Strategic planning for this period must take into account the ‘two major contexts’: the strategic overall situation of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the profound changes unseen in a century unfolding in the global landscape. Domestically, China’s economy has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality development, requiring accelerated efforts to foster a new development paradigm, achieve technological self-reliance, advance green and low-carbon transformation, and promote common prosperity. Internationally, geopolitical dynamics are undergoing significant shifts, technological competition is intensifying, and global supply chains are being restructured, leading to heightened uncertainty. Against this backdrop, the 15th Five-Year Plan must adopt a holistic and systemic approach, strengthen risk preparedness, and ensure high-level security to underpin high-quality development. Domestically, it should deepen reform and opening-up, unlock domestic demand potential, and enhance industrial resilience. Globally, China should actively engage in global governance, promote a community with a shared future for humanity, and increase its voice in shaping international rules. Only by effectively coordinating these two major contexts can China maintain strategic initiative amid complex global changes and lay a solid foundation for achieving basic socialist modernization by 2035.
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