根据世界气象组织（WMO）和多个气候研究机构的最新数据，2025年极有可能成为有记录以来第三热的年份，仅次于2023年和2024年。这一趋势主要受到持续的全球变暖、厄尔尼诺现象的余波以及温室气体浓度不断上升的推动。科学家指出，尽管2024年厄尔尼诺事件已逐渐减弱，但其对海洋和大气系统的滞后效应仍在推高全球平均气温。那么，2026年会更热吗？目前尚无法给出确定答案，但多项气候模型预测显示，随着拉尼娜现象可能在2025年下半年形成，它通常会对全球气温起到一定降温作用。然而，这种自然气候波动的影响正被人类活动导致的长期变暖趋势所抵消。因此，即使出现拉尼娜，2026年的气温仍可能维持在历史高位，甚至打破新纪录。专家强调，无论短期气候波动如何，全球升温的长期轨迹依然向上。若不大幅减少温室气体排放，未来几年打破高温纪录将成为常态。应对气候变化，需要全球协同行动，加快能源转型与生态保护。
According to the latest data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and multiple climate research institutions, 2025 is highly likely to become the third-hottest year on record, following 2023 and 2024. This trend is primarily driven by ongoing global warming, lingering effects of the El Niño phenomenon, and continuously rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Scientists note that although the 2024 El Niño event has gradually weakened, its delayed impact on oceanic and atmospheric systems continues to elevate global average temperatures.Will 2026 be even hotter? While a definitive answer isn’t possible yet, many climate models suggest that a La Niña event could develop in the latter half of 2025. La Niña typically exerts a temporary cooling influence on global temperatures. However, this natural climate variability is increasingly being overwhelmed by the long-term warming trend caused by human activities. As a result, even with La Niña, 2026 could still rank among the warmest years—or potentially set a new record.Experts stress that regardless of short-term fluctuations, the long-term trajectory of global warming remains upward. Without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, record-breaking heat will likely become the norm in the coming years. Addressing climate change demands urgent, coordinated global action to accelerate energy transition and ecosystem protection.
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