近年来，美国频繁“退群”——退出《巴黎气候协定》、世界卫生组织、联合国人权理事会、伊朗核协议等国际机制，引发全球对其战略意图的广泛讨论。有人认为这是美国在全球化压力下的战略收缩，旨在减少国际义务、聚焦国内问题；也有人视之为霸权衰落的征兆，反映其难以维系单极主导地位。支持“战略收缩”观点者指出，特朗普政府强调“美国优先”，试图通过退出多边框架重拾主权与经济自主，拜登政府虽重返部分协定，但整体仍延续对华竞争和减少海外干预的基调。这种调整并非全面撤退，而是有选择地重构全球影响力。而持“霸权末路”论者则认为，美国频繁毁约、背信弃义削弱了其道德权威与联盟凝聚力。当盟友开始寻求战略自主（如欧盟强化防务合作、中东国家转向多边平衡），美国的领导力正被系统性挑战。加之国内政治极化、社会分裂加剧，其维持全球秩序的能力大打折扣。实际上，美国“退群”既是战略再平衡的工具，也是霸权焦虑的体现。它既未完全放弃主导地位，又无力承担原有责任。未来美国能否在多极世界中重塑有效领导力，将取决于其能否重建国内共识与国际合作信任。
In recent years, the United States has repeatedly withdrawn from international agreements and organizations—such as the Paris Climate Accord, the World Health Organization, the UN Human Rights Council, and the Iran nuclear deal—sparking global debate over its strategic intentions. Some interpret these moves as a deliberate strategic retrenchment aimed at reducing international commitments and refocusing on domestic priorities; others see them as symptoms of declining hegemony, signaling America’s waning ability to sustain unipolar dominance.Proponents of the “strategic retrenchment” view argue that the Trump administration’s “America First” policy sought to reclaim sovereignty and economic autonomy by stepping back from multilateral frameworks. Although the Biden administration rejoined certain agreements, it has largely maintained a posture of strategic competition with China and reduced overseas entanglements—indicating not a full retreat but a selective recalibration of global influence.Conversely, those who see this as the “end of hegemony” contend that America’s repeated treaty withdrawals and perceived unreliability have eroded its moral authority and weakened alliance cohesion. As allies increasingly pursue strategic autonomy—evident in the EU’s push for defense integration and Middle Eastern states diversifying partnerships—U.S. leadership faces systemic challenges. Compounded by deep domestic polarization and social fragmentation, America’s capacity to uphold the global order is significantly diminished.In reality, U.S. “de-coupling” from multilateralism reflects both a tactical rebalancing and anxiety over its fading primacy. It neither fully abandons leadership nor can bear the burdens of its former role. Whether the U.S. can rebuild effective leadership in a multipolar world hinges on its ability to restore domestic consensus and international trust.
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