近期，多家西方媒体援引行业报告指出，全球铜资源正面临‘结构性短缺’。所谓结构性短缺，是指在中长期时间内，由于供应增长滞后于需求扩张，导致市场持续供不应求的状态。这一趋势主要由三大因素驱动：一是绿色能源转型加速，风能、太阳能、电动汽车及电网基础设施对铜的需求激增；二是新铜矿开发周期长、投资大、审批严，新增产能难以快速填补缺口；三是现有矿山品位下降，开采成本上升，进一步限制了有效供给。国际能源署（IEA）预测，到2035年，全球铜需求可能翻倍，而目前规划中的新项目远不足以满足这一增长。高盛等金融机构也警告，若不加大勘探与投资力度，未来十年可能出现严重供需失衡，推高铜价并影响清洁能源部署进度。专家呼吁各国政府与企业加强合作，加快关键矿产供应链建设，同时推动回收利用和替代材料研发，以缓解潜在危机。
Recently, several Western media outlets have cited industry reports warning that the world is facing a ‘structural shortage’ of copper. A structural shortage refers to a persistent supply-demand imbalance over the medium to long term, where supply growth lags behind rising demand. This trend is primarily driven by three factors: first, the accelerated global transition to green energy has sharply increased demand for copper in wind and solar power installations, electric vehicles, and grid infrastructure; second, new copper mining projects require long lead times, substantial capital investment, and face stringent regulatory approvals, making it difficult to quickly ramp up supply; and third, declining ore grades in existing mines are raising extraction costs and constraining effective output.The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global copper demand could double by 2035, while currently planned mining projects fall far short of meeting this surge. Financial institutions like Goldman Sachs have warned that without significantly increased exploration and investment, a severe supply-demand gap could emerge within the next decade, driving up copper prices and potentially delaying clean energy deployment. Experts urge governments and companies to enhance collaboration, accelerate the development of critical mineral supply chains, and invest in recycling and alternative materials to mitigate this looming crisis.
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