近日，花旗集团发布最新研究报告，预计美联储将在2024年3月启动本轮加息周期后的首次降息。这一预测主要基于美国通胀持续回落、劳动力市场逐步降温以及经济增长动能放缓等多重因素。花旗指出，尽管当前联邦基金利率仍处于5.25%–5.50%的高位，但核心CPI和PCE等关键通胀指标已连续数月呈现下行趋势，为美联储转向宽松政策提供了空间。此外，近期多项经济数据显示，美国消费者支出趋缓、制造业活动疲软，加之企业盈利预期下调，进一步强化了市场对美联储提前降息的预期。花旗认为，若未来几个月就业数据继续走弱或通胀超预期回落，美联储甚至可能在3月会议上就释放明确的降息信号。不过，花旗也提醒投资者需保持谨慎。美联储官员近期表态仍偏“鹰派”，强调需看到更多确凿证据表明通胀已实质性受控，才会考虑调整利率。因此，尽管3月降息的可能性上升，但最终决策仍将高度依赖即将公布的经济数据。总体而言，花旗的预测反映了当前市场对货币政策转向的普遍期待，也为投资者布局今年资产配置提供了重要参考。
Recently, Citigroup released a new research report forecasting that the Federal Reserve will initiate its first rate cut of this cycle in March 2024. This outlook is primarily driven by persistently cooling inflation, a gradually softening labor market, and signs of slowing economic momentum. Citigroup noted that although the federal funds rate remains elevated at 5.25%–5.50%, key inflation gauges such as core CPI and PCE have shown consistent declines over recent months, creating room for the Fed to pivot toward a more accommodative stance.Moreover, recent economic data—including weakening consumer spending, sluggish manufacturing activity, and downward revisions to corporate earnings forecasts—have further reinforced market expectations for an earlier rate cut. Citigroup suggests that if employment data continues to deteriorate or inflation cools faster than anticipated in the coming months, the Fed could even signal a clear intention to cut rates as early as its March meeting.However, Citigroup also cautions investors to remain vigilant. Recent comments from Fed officials have remained somewhat “hawkish,” emphasizing the need for more concrete evidence that inflation is durably under control before adjusting policy. Thus, while the probability of a March rate cut is rising, the final decision will heavily depend on incoming economic data. Overall, Citigroup’s forecast reflects the market’s growing anticipation of a monetary policy pivot and offers valuable guidance for investors shaping their asset allocation strategies this year.
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