近日，国际信用评级机构惠誉（Fitch Ratings）将土耳其的主权信用评级前景从“稳定”上调至“积极”，维持其当前BB-的长期外币发行人违约评级不变。这一调整反映出惠誉对土耳其宏观经济政策方向改善的认可，尤其是在控制通胀、稳定汇率和重建外汇储备方面取得的初步成效。惠誉指出，土耳其新一届政府在2023年大选后采取了更为正统的经济政策，包括提高利率以抑制高企的通胀、加强央行独立性以及推动财政纪律。这些举措有助于恢复市场信心，并吸引外资回流。此外，土耳其经常账户赤字收窄、外汇储备逐步回升，也增强了其抵御外部冲击的能力。尽管如此，惠誉仍提醒，土耳其经济仍面临结构性挑战，如高通胀惯性、公共债务压力以及地缘政治风险。若未来政策持续保持稳健，不排除在未来6至12个月内上调其主权信用评级的可能性。此次前景展望的调整，被视为国际投资者对土耳其经济复苏信心增强的重要信号。
Recently, Fitch Ratings upgraded Turkey’s sovereign credit rating outlook from ‘Stable’ to ‘Positive,’ while maintaining its current Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at BB-. This adjustment reflects Fitch’s recognition of improvements in Turkey’s macroeconomic policy direction, particularly initial progress in curbing inflation, stabilizing the exchange rate, and rebuilding foreign exchange reserves.Fitch noted that following the 2023 general elections, Turkey’s new government has adopted more orthodox economic policies, including raising interest rates to combat high inflation, enhancing central bank independence, and reinforcing fiscal discipline. These measures have helped restore market confidence and attract foreign capital inflows. Additionally, a narrowing current account deficit and gradually recovering foreign reserves have strengthened Turkey’s resilience to external shocks.Nevertheless, Fitch cautioned that structural challenges remain, including persistent high inflation, public debt pressures, and geopolitical risks. If Turkey maintains its current policy trajectory, a potential upgrade of its sovereign rating could occur within the next 6 to 12 months. The revised outlook is widely seen as a significant signal of growing international investor confidence in Turkey’s economic recovery.
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