“三九”是我国传统节气中一年中最冷的时段，通常出现在冬至后的第19天至第27天（即公历1月上旬至中旬）。然而，近年来“三九”期间我国大部地区气温显著偏高，呈现出“暖三九”的异常现象。据气象部门监测数据显示，2024年“三九”期间，全国平均气温较常年同期偏高1℃以上，华北、黄淮、江南等地甚至偏高2–3℃，多地打破历史同期高温纪录。造成这一现象的主要原因包括全球气候变暖背景下的极端天气频发，以及阶段性大气环流异常。例如，西太平洋副热带高压偏强、冷空气活动偏弱等因素共同导致冷空气难以南下，使得我国中东部地区持续处于相对温暖的气团控制之下。“暖三九”虽带来短暂舒适感，但也可能对农业、生态系统及能源调度产生不利影响。例如，越冬作物可能因缺乏低温锻炼而抗寒能力下降，病虫害越冬存活率上升；同时，公众对冬季保暖准备不足也可能增加健康风险。专家提醒，应关注气候变化趋势，加强防灾减灾和适应性管理。
‘Sanjiu’—the third nine-day period following the winter solstice—is traditionally regarded as the coldest time of the year in China, typically falling between early and mid-January. However, in recent years, much of China has experienced significantly warmer-than-average temperatures during this period, a phenomenon known as a ‘warm Sanjiu.’ According to meteorological data, during the 2024 Sanjiu period, the national average temperature was over 1°C higher than the long-term average, with regions such as North China, the Huai River basin, and southern China seeing anomalies of 2–3°C, breaking historical records for the same period.This unusual warmth is primarily driven by global climate change and short-term atmospheric circulation anomalies. Factors such as an unusually strong western Pacific subtropical high and weaker-than-normal cold air outbreaks have limited the southward movement of cold air masses, leaving central and eastern China under the influence of relatively warm air.While a warm Sanjiu may bring temporary comfort, it can also negatively impact agriculture, ecosystems, and energy management. For instance, winter crops may lack sufficient cold exposure to develop frost resistance, and overwintering pests may survive in greater numbers. Additionally, reduced public preparedness for cold weather could pose health risks. Experts urge heightened awareness of climate trends and enhanced adaptive measures to mitigate potential impacts.
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