近日，多家市场研究机构和半导体行业分析师预测，到2026年，DRAM（动态随机存取存储器）价格可能飙升高达88%。这一预测主要基于供需关系的结构性变化：一方面，AI、数据中心、高性能计算等新兴应用对高带宽、大容量内存的需求持续激增；另一方面，DRAM制造商在过去几年因市场低迷而大幅削减资本支出，导致产能扩张滞后。随着全球数字化进程加速，尤其是生成式AI模型训练对内存带宽和容量提出更高要求，DRAM市场正面临供应紧张的局面。此外，主要厂商如三星、SK海力士和美光已开始调整策略，减少低利润产品线，聚焦高端DDR5和HBM（高带宽内存）技术，进一步收紧整体供应。分析师指出，若2025至2026年间产能无法及时跟上需求增长，价格暴涨将成为大概率事件。这一趋势或将对智能手机、PC、服务器乃至汽车电子等多个下游产业的成本结构产生深远影响。
Recently, multiple market research firms and semiconductor industry analysts have forecast that DRAM (Dynamic Random-Access Memory) prices could surge by as much as 88% by 2026. This projection is primarily driven by structural shifts in supply and demand: on the demand side, emerging applications such as AI, data centers, and high-performance computing are fueling unprecedented demand for high-bandwidth, high-capacity memory; on the supply side, DRAM manufacturers significantly reduced capital expenditures during recent market downturns, leading to delayed capacity expansion. As global digitalization accelerates—particularly with generative AI models demanding more memory bandwidth and capacity—the DRAM market is heading toward a supply crunch. Moreover, major players like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are shifting strategies, scaling back low-margin product lines and focusing instead on advanced technologies like DDR5 and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), further tightening overall supply. Analysts warn that if production capacity fails to catch up with surging demand between 2025 and 2026, a sharp price increase is highly likely. This trend could significantly impact cost structures across downstream sectors, including smartphones, PCs, servers, and automotive electronics.
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