近期，摩根士丹利（大摩）发布报告指出，全球内存（DRAM和NAND闪存）价格正经历显著上涨，这一趋势可能对安卓智能手机和PC制造商造成冲击。报告分析称，由于AI服务器需求激增、主要存储芯片厂商减产以及供应链库存回补等因素共同作用，内存价格自2023年下半年以来持续攀升。大摩预计，这一涨势将在2024年延续，尤其在高带宽内存（HBM）等高端产品领域更为明显。对于安卓阵营而言，内存成本上升将直接推高中高端手机的物料成本，压缩厂商利润空间，甚至可能导致终端售价上调。而PC行业同样面临压力，尤其是消费级笔记本和台式机，其DRAM采购成本增加可能延缓市场复苏步伐。相比之下，苹果等垂直整合能力强的厂商受影响较小。大摩建议投资者关注具备成本转嫁能力或技术领先优势的科技企业，同时警惕依赖外部内存供应且议价能力较弱的硬件品牌。总体来看，内存价格波动已成为影响2024年消费电子行业盈利前景的关键变量之一。
Recently, Morgan Stanley (MS) released a report highlighting a significant surge in global memory prices—specifically DRAM and NAND flash—which could negatively impact Android smartphone and PC manufacturers. The report attributes this price increase to surging demand for AI servers, production cuts by major memory chipmakers, and inventory restocking across the supply chain. Since the second half of 2023, memory prices have been steadily rising, and MS expects this trend to continue into 2024, particularly for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and other premium segments.For Android device makers, higher memory costs directly raise bill-of-materials expenses for mid-to-high-end smartphones, squeezing profit margins and potentially leading to higher retail prices. The PC industry faces similar pressures, especially in the consumer laptop and desktop segments, where increased DRAM procurement costs could delay market recovery. In contrast, vertically integrated companies like Apple are less vulnerable.Morgan Stanley advises investors to focus on tech firms with strong pricing power or technological advantages, while remaining cautious about hardware brands heavily reliant on external memory suppliers and lacking bargaining leverage. Overall, memory price volatility has emerged as a key factor influencing the profitability outlook for the consumer electronics sector in 2024.
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