2024年开年以来，碳酸锂期现货价格双双大幅上涨，引发市场广泛关注。截至1月底，国内电池级碳酸锂现货价格已突破每吨12万元，较2023年底上涨逾30%；与此同时，上海期货交易所的碳酸锂主力合约价格也同步飙升，创下近半年新高。此轮价格上涨主要受多重因素推动：一方面，新能源汽车销量持续回暖，叠加春节前下游正极材料厂商集中补库，带动需求预期升温；另一方面，部分锂盐厂因成本压力减产或检修，导致供应阶段性收紧。此外，市场对2024年全球锂资源供需格局改善的乐观预期，也助推了投机资金入场推高期货价格。值得注意的是，当前碳酸锂库存仍处高位，若后续需求不及预期，价格或面临回调压力。总体来看，碳酸锂价格短期内或维持高位震荡，但中长期走势仍取决于新能源产业链的实际需求与上游产能释放节奏。
Since the beginning of 2024, both spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate have surged significantly, drawing widespread market attention. By the end of January, domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices had surpassed RMB 120,000 per metric ton, up over 30% from the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the front-month lithium carbonate futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also rose sharply, reaching a six-month high. This price rally is driven by multiple factors: on the demand side, a recovery in new energy vehicle (NEV) sales and pre-Chinese New Year restocking by cathode material producers have boosted near-term demand expectations; on the supply side, some lithium producers have reduced output or undergone maintenance due to cost pressures, leading to temporary tightness. Additionally, optimistic market sentiment regarding an improved global lithium supply-demand balance in 2024 has attracted speculative capital into the futures market. However, it’s worth noting that lithium carbonate inventories remain relatively high, and prices could face downward pressure if actual demand fails to meet expectations. In the short term, prices may stay elevated with volatility, but the medium- to long-term trend will ultimately hinge on real demand from the NEV sector and the pace of upstream capacity expansion.
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