近期，广发证券发布研究报告指出，煤炭行业有望迎来新一轮景气周期。报告认为，当前煤炭供需格局持续改善，叠加能源安全战略的强化以及绿色转型过程中的阶段性能源需求支撑，煤炭价格具备较强韧性。一方面，国内煤炭产能释放受到资源禀赋和环保政策限制，新增产能有限；另一方面，火电在能源结构中仍占据重要地位，尤其在极端天气频发和可再生能源波动性较大的背景下，对煤炭的刚性需求保持稳定。此外，海外能源市场不确定性增加，也进一步提升了国内煤炭的战略价值。广发证券预计，在高分红、低估值和盈利稳定性增强的多重因素推动下，煤炭板块或将吸引长期资金配置，成为能源转型过渡期的重要投资方向。
Recently, GF Securities released a research report indicating that the coal industry is poised to enter a new upcycle. The report notes that the supply-demand dynamics of coal continue to improve, supported by strengthened national energy security strategies and sustained demand during the transitional phase of the green energy shift, which together lend resilience to coal prices. On the supply side, domestic coal production capacity expansion is constrained by resource limitations and environmental regulations, resulting in limited new capacity. On the demand side, thermal power remains a crucial component of China’s energy mix, especially amid frequent extreme weather events and the intermittency of renewable energy sources, ensuring stable baseline demand for coal. Furthermore, growing uncertainties in global energy markets have elevated the strategic importance of domestic coal. GF Securities forecasts that, driven by high dividend yields, low valuations, and enhanced earnings stability, coal stocks could attract long-term institutional investment and emerge as a key asset class during the energy transition period.
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