根据最新市场数据，美联储在2024年1月维持联邦基金利率不变的概率高达81.7%。这一预测主要基于芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的‘美联储观察’工具所反映的期货市场定价。当前联邦基金利率区间为5.25%–5.50%，自2023年7月以来已连续多次会议保持不变。市场普遍认为，随着美国通胀压力逐步缓解、就业市场趋于温和，美联储已进入本轮加息周期的尾声。近期公布的消费者物价指数（CPI）和核心PCE数据均显示通胀持续回落，增强了政策制定者暂停加息的信心。此外，美联储官员在公开讲话中也多次强调需要‘谨慎行事’，避免过度紧缩对经济造成不必要的伤害。尽管如此，决策者仍保留根据后续经济数据调整政策的灵活性。若1月非农就业或通胀数据意外走强，不排除政策路径出现微调。但就目前而言，81.7%的概率表明市场高度预期美联储将在1月会议上按兵不动，继续观察经济走势。
According to the latest market data, there is an 81.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold its federal funds rate steady in January 2024. This forecast is primarily derived from futures market pricing reflected in the CME Group’s ‘FedWatch Tool.’ The current federal funds rate target range stands at 5.25%–5.50%, unchanged since July 2023 across multiple consecutive policy meetings. Markets widely believe the Fed has reached the end of its current tightening cycle, as U.S. inflation pressures ease and the labor market shows signs of moderation. Recent releases of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core PCE data both indicate a continued cooling of inflation, bolstering policymakers’ confidence in pausing rate hikes. Moreover, Fed officials have repeatedly emphasized the need to ‘proceed carefully’ in public remarks to avoid unnecessary economic damage from overtightening. Nevertheless, policymakers retain flexibility to adjust their stance based on incoming economic data. Should January’s nonfarm payroll or inflation reports surprise to the upside, minor policy adjustments could still occur. For now, however, the 81.7% probability strongly suggests the market expects the Fed to remain on hold at its January meeting while it continues monitoring economic developments.
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