近期，摩根大通（小摩）发布报告指出，美国在委内瑞拉采取的一系列政治与经济行动，正在间接强化黄金的看涨前景。报告认为，美国对委内瑞拉局势的干预加剧了全球地缘政治紧张局势，促使投资者寻求避险资产，而黄金作为传统避险工具，因此受到更多关注。具体而言，美国加强对委内瑞拉制裁、支持反对派以及推动政权更迭等举措，不仅可能扰乱拉美地区稳定，还可能影响全球能源市场和供应链安全。这种不确定性提升了市场对通胀和货币贬值的担忧，进一步推高对黄金的需求。此外，美元若因政治风险上升而走弱，也将利好以美元计价的黄金价格。小摩分析师强调，在当前全球经济复苏不均衡、货币政策分化加剧的背景下，地缘政治风险已成为支撑金价的重要因素。未来若美国在委内瑞拉的行动持续升级，黄金的避险属性将更加凸显，有望推动金价突破关键阻力位，维持中长期上涨趋势。
Recently, JPMorgan (JPM) released a report stating that the United States’ political and economic actions in Venezuela are indirectly reinforcing the bullish outlook for gold. According to the report, U.S. intervention in Venezuela’s affairs has heightened global geopolitical tensions, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets—with gold, as a traditional hedge, attracting increased attention.Specifically, measures such as intensified U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, support for opposition groups, and efforts to promote regime change not only risk destabilizing Latin America but could also disrupt global energy markets and supply chains. This uncertainty fuels concerns about inflation and currency depreciation, thereby boosting demand for gold. Moreover, if the U.S. dollar weakens due to rising political risks, it would further support gold prices, which are denominated in dollars.JPMorgan analysts emphasized that, against a backdrop of uneven global economic recovery and widening monetary policy divergence, geopolitical risk has become a key driver underpinning gold prices. Should U.S. actions in Venezuela continue to escalate, gold’s safe-haven appeal is likely to strengthen further, potentially driving prices above key resistance levels and sustaining a medium- to long-term upward trend.
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