近日，高盛发布研究报告指出，预计中国央行将在2024年第一季度实施一次‘双降’政策，即同时下调存款准备金率（RRR）和政策利率（如MLF或逆回购利率）。这一预测主要基于当前国内经济复苏基础尚不牢固、通胀水平持续低位以及外部需求疲软等多重因素。高盛认为，通过‘双降’操作，央行可有效释放流动性、降低实体经济融资成本，并进一步提振市场信心。值得注意的是，‘双降’并非频繁使用的政策工具，通常在经济面临较大下行压力时才会被考虑。若该预测成真，这将是继2023年以来首次采取如此力度的宽松措施，可能对股市、债市及房地产市场产生积极影响。不过，央行也可能根据后续经济数据灵活调整政策节奏，确保稳增长与防风险之间的平衡。
Recently, Goldman Sachs released a research report predicting that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a ‘double cut’ in the first quarter of 2024—simultaneously lowering the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and key policy rates such as the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) or reverse repo rate. This forecast is primarily driven by factors including a still-fragile economic recovery, persistently low inflation, and weak external demand. Goldman Sachs believes that such a coordinated easing would effectively inject liquidity into the financial system, reduce financing costs for the real economy, and bolster market confidence. Notably, the ‘double cut’ is not a frequently used policy tool and is typically reserved for periods of significant economic downside pressure. If realized, this would mark the first such aggressive easing move since 2023 and could positively impact equity markets, bond markets, and the real estate sector. However, the PBOC may adjust its policy stance flexibly based on incoming economic data to maintain a balance between supporting growth and managing financial risks.
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