近日，前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙表示，随着国内经济逐步复苏、政策支持力度加大以及市场信心回暖，A股市场有望在今年迎来更多板块的轮番上涨。他认为，此前市场主要由少数高景气赛道（如新能源、人工智能等）领涨，但随着估值趋于合理和资金面改善，消费、医药、金融、地产等传统板块或将接力成为新的上涨动力。杨德龙指出，当前市场整体估值仍处于历史低位，具备较强的安全边际。同时，稳增长政策持续发力，包括降准降息、财政刺激以及支持民营经济等举措，将为股市提供良好环境。他建议投资者关注具有基本面支撑、估值合理的优质蓝筹股，并采取均衡配置策略，以应对结构性行情的轮动特征。此外，他还强调，尽管外部环境仍存在不确定性，如美联储货币政策走向和地缘政治风险，但中国经济的内生韧性与政策空间足以支撑资本市场长期向好。因此，2024年A股或呈现“多点开花、轮动上涨”的格局，为中长期投资者带来较好布局机会。
Recently, Yang Delong, Chief Economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, stated that as China’s economy gradually recovers, policy support intensifies, and market confidence rebounds, the A-share market is likely to see a rotation of rallies across more sectors this year. He noted that while earlier market gains were led by a few high-growth sectors—such as new energy and artificial intelligence—as valuations normalize and liquidity improves, traditional sectors like consumer goods, healthcare, financials, and real estate may take the lead in the next phase of the rally.Yang emphasized that the overall market valuation remains at a historically low level, offering a solid margin of safety. Ongoing pro-growth policies—including interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio reductions, fiscal stimulus, and measures supporting private enterprises—are creating a favorable environment for equities. He advises investors to focus on high-quality blue-chip stocks with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations, adopting a well-diversified portfolio strategy to navigate the rotating nature of structural market opportunities.Moreover, despite external uncertainties—such as the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory and geopolitical risks—Yang believes China’s economic resilience and ample policy space are sufficient to underpin long-term capital market optimism. Therefore, the A-share market in 2024 may exhibit a pattern of ‘broad-based, rotating rallies,’ presenting attractive opportunities for medium- to long-term investors.
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