新加坡国立大学教授郑永年曾指出：‘委内瑞拉绝不是最后一个’，意在警示全球政治经济格局中类似委内瑞拉的国家可能还会出现。委内瑞拉曾是拉美最富有的国家之一，但因过度依赖石油出口、经济结构单一、政策失误以及政治极化等问题，陷入严重经济危机与社会动荡。郑永年认为，这一案例并非孤立现象，而是全球化时代下部分发展中国家治理失败的缩影。他强调，若一个国家缺乏制度韧性、法治基础薄弱、过度依赖资源红利而忽视产业升级和民生建设，就可能重蹈委内瑞拉覆辙。在全球不确定性加剧的背景下，各国需加强治理体系改革，推动包容性发展，避免陷入‘资源诅咒’与民粹主义陷阱。郑永年的观点提醒我们，国家兴衰不仅取决于资源禀赋，更在于制度能力与长期战略规划。
Professor Zheng Yongnian of the National University of Singapore once remarked, ‘Venezuela will certainly not be the last,’ warning that more countries resembling Venezuela could emerge amid the shifting global political and economic landscape. Once among Latin America’s wealthiest nations, Venezuela plunged into severe economic crisis and social unrest due to overreliance on oil exports, a mono-structural economy, policy missteps, and political polarization. Zheng argues that Venezuela’s plight is not an isolated case but rather emblematic of governance failures in certain developing countries in the era of globalization. He stresses that nations lacking institutional resilience, with weak rule of law and excessive dependence on resource rents—while neglecting industrial upgrading and public welfare—are at risk of repeating Venezuela’s downfall. Amid growing global uncertainties, Zheng urges countries to reform their governance systems and pursue inclusive development to avoid the ‘resource curse’ and populist traps. His insight underscores that national prosperity depends less on natural endowments and more on institutional capacity and long-term strategic planning.
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