近期，多家国内外知名金融机构发布研究报告，普遍预期2026年中国股市将延续上涨趋势。这一‘机构共识’主要基于中国经济基本面持续改善、资本市场改革深化以及估值处于历史低位等多重利好因素。首先，随着稳增长政策逐步显效，企业盈利有望企稳回升，为股市提供坚实支撑。其次，全面注册制的稳步推进、退市机制的完善以及对外开放程度的提升，增强了A股市场的制度吸引力和国际竞争力。此外，当前A股整体估值仍低于历史均值，具备较高的安全边际和配置价值。高盛、摩根士丹利、瑞银等国际投行均上调了对中国股市的评级，并预计2026年MSCI中国指数或沪深300指数将录得两位数涨幅。当然，专家也提醒投资者需关注全球经济波动、地缘政治风险及国内结构性改革进度等潜在不确定性。总体来看，机构普遍认为，在政策支持与市场机制优化的双重驱动下，2026年中国股市有望延续结构性牛市行情。
Recently, numerous prominent domestic and international financial institutions have released research reports collectively forecasting that China’s stock market will continue its upward trajectory into 2026. This ‘institutional consensus’ is primarily driven by sustained improvements in China’s economic fundamentals, deepening capital market reforms, and historically low valuations. Firstly, as pro-growth policies gradually take effect, corporate earnings are expected to stabilize and recover, providing solid support for equities. Secondly, the steady implementation of a full registration-based IPO system, enhanced delisting mechanisms, and greater market openness have strengthened the institutional appeal and global competitiveness of China’s A-share market. Moreover, current valuations across the A-share market remain below historical averages, offering attractive risk-adjusted returns and strategic allocation value. Global investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and UBS have all upgraded their ratings on Chinese equities, projecting double-digit gains for benchmarks like the MSCI China Index or CSI 300 by 2026. Analysts also caution investors to remain mindful of external risks, including global economic volatility, geopolitical tensions, and the pace of domestic structural reforms. Overall, institutions broadly agree that, supported by policy tailwinds and institutional enhancements, China’s equity market is poised to sustain a structural bull run through 2026.
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