近期，银河证券发布研报指出，2024年A股市场的‘春季躁动’行情或有望提前启动。通常而言，‘春季躁动’是指每年一季度因政策预期、流动性宽松及风险偏好回升等因素推动的阶段性上涨行情。然而，受当前市场环境变化影响，包括稳增长政策持续加码、美联储加息周期接近尾声以及国内经济数据边际改善等多重利好，市场情绪已出现明显回暖迹象。银河证券分析认为，随着中央经济工作会议定调积极，财政与货币政策协同发力，叠加年末资金面季节性宽松，投资者对来年经济复苏的信心增强，可能促使资金提前布局优质资产。尤其在科技、消费和高股息板块中，部分具备业绩支撑和估值优势的个股已率先获得资金关注。此外，历史数据显示，在过去十年中，A股多次在12月便开始演绎‘春季躁动’行情。因此，银河证券建议投资者可适当提升仓位，重点关注政策受益方向和景气度回升的行业，把握本轮潜在的提前启动机会。
Recently, Galaxy Securities released a research report suggesting that the ‘Spring Rally’ in China’s A-share market in 2024 may start earlier than usual. Traditionally, the ‘Spring Rally’ refers to a seasonal uptrend in the first quarter, driven by factors such as policy expectations, accommodative liquidity, and rising risk appetite. However, due to current market dynamics—including intensified pro-growth policies, the nearing end of the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle, and marginal improvements in domestic economic data—market sentiment has already shown clear signs of recovery.Galaxy Securities notes that with the Central Economic Work Conference setting a positive tone and coordinated fiscal and monetary policies gaining traction, coupled with seasonal year-end liquidity easing, investor confidence in an economic rebound next year is strengthening. This could prompt early positioning into quality assets. Sectors such as technology, consumer goods, and high-dividend stocks—with solid earnings and attractive valuations—are already drawing capital inflows.Historical data shows that in the past decade, the A-share market has often begun its Spring Rally as early as December. Therefore, Galaxy Securities recommends investors consider moderately increasing exposure and focus on policy-supported sectors and industries showing improving fundamentals to capitalize on this potentially early-starting rally.
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