近日，国泰君安与海通证券联合发布最新市场策略报告，建议投资者‘超配风险资产’。所谓‘超配’，是指在投资组合中对某一类资产的配置比例高于基准或市场平均水平。报告指出，在当前宏观经济逐步企稳、政策支持力度加大以及全球流动性环境改善的背景下，权益类资产（如股票）和部分高收益信用债等风险资产具备较高的配置价值。具体来看，国泰海通认为，A股市场估值处于历史低位，叠加企业盈利预期边际改善，为中长期布局提供了良好窗口。同时，随着美联储加息周期接近尾声，海外市场波动趋于缓和，也有利于提升全球风险偏好。此外，国内财政与货币政策协同发力，将进一步支撑经济复苏，增强市场信心。不过，报告也提醒投资者需关注地缘政治、海外通胀反复及国内结构性转型中的不确定性因素。建议采取‘逢低布局、均衡配置’的策略，重点聚焦科技、高端制造、消费复苏等主线板块。总体而言，‘超配风险资产’并非盲目追高，而是在控制风险的前提下，把握结构性机会，以实现资产的稳健增值。
Recently, Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities jointly released a market strategy report recommending investors to ‘overweight risk assets.’ ‘Overweighting’ means allocating a higher proportion of a specific asset class in a portfolio than its benchmark or market average weight. The report notes that, given the current macroeconomic stabilization, stronger policy support, and improving global liquidity conditions, risk assets—such as equities and certain high-yield credit bonds—offer attractive investment opportunities.Specifically, Guotai Haitong points out that A-share valuations are at historically low levels, and with marginal improvements in corporate earnings expectations, the market presents a favorable window for medium- to long-term positioning. Additionally, as the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle nears its end, overseas market volatility is easing, which supports a rise in global risk appetite. Domestically, coordinated fiscal and monetary policies are expected to further bolster economic recovery and investor confidence.Nevertheless, the report cautions investors to remain mindful of geopolitical tensions, potential inflation rebounds abroad, and uncertainties associated with China’s structural economic transition. It recommends a strategy of ‘buying on dips and maintaining balanced allocations,’ with a focus on key sectors such as technology, advanced manufacturing, and consumer recovery. Overall, ‘overweighting risk assets’ does not imply chasing short-term gains, but rather seizing structural opportunities prudently while managing downside risks to achieve steady portfolio growth.
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