近日，中信建投证券发布研究报告指出，2024年铜价或将迎来‘历史级别’的上涨行情。该机构认为，多重因素正在推动铜市场进入结构性牛市。首先，全球绿色能源转型加速，新能源汽车、光伏、风电等产业对铜的需求持续攀升；其次，全球主要铜矿品位下降、新项目投产延迟，导致供应增长受限；此外，美联储加息周期接近尾声，美元走弱预期增强，也有利于以美元计价的大宗商品如铜的价格上行。中信建投预计，2024年全球铜供需缺口将进一步扩大，库存处于低位，叠加金融属性增强，铜价有望突破历史高点。投资者可关注铜资源类企业及产业链相关标的，把握本轮周期性机遇。值得注意的是，尽管前景乐观，但全球经济波动、政策变化及替代材料技术进步等因素仍可能对铜价形成扰动，建议投资者在布局时保持理性，注重风险控制。
Recently, China Securities Co., Ltd. (CSC) released a research report suggesting that copper prices could experience a ‘historic-level’ rally in 2024. The firm argues that multiple factors are driving the copper market into a structural bull phase. First, the accelerated global transition toward green energy is significantly boosting demand from sectors such as electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power—all of which rely heavily on copper. Second, declining ore grades at major global mines and delays in new project commissioning are constraining supply growth. Additionally, with the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle nearing its end, expectations of a weaker U.S. dollar further support upward momentum for dollar-denominated commodities like copper. CSC forecasts that the global copper supply deficit will widen in 2024, with inventories already at low levels and copper’s financial attributes strengthening—potentially pushing prices beyond previous historical highs. Investors may consider exposure to copper mining companies and related industrial chains to capitalize on this cyclical opportunity.However, despite the optimistic outlook, risks such as global economic volatility, policy shifts, and advances in substitute materials could still disrupt copper prices. Prudent risk management remains essential for investors navigating this market.
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