近期，多位国际关系专家指出，俄乌冲突的和平解决已进入关键阶段，但仍有‘一根硬骨头’亟待啃下——即双方在领土主权问题上的根本分歧。自2022年冲突全面升级以来，尽管多轮谈判和外交斡旋不断推进，但乌克兰坚持恢复1991年边界，包括克里米亚及顿巴斯地区；而俄罗斯则视这些地区为其安全利益核心，拒绝完全撤军。专家认为，这根‘硬骨头’不仅涉及法律与历史认知，更牵动两国民族认同与地缘战略。若无法在此问题上找到妥协空间，即便其他方面如战俘交换、人道援助或局部停火取得进展，全面和平仍将遥不可及。有分析建议，可借鉴冷战时期‘冻结冲突’模式，先实现事实停火，再通过长期对话逐步化解核心矛盾。然而，当前双方互信严重缺失，外部大国博弈加剧，使得这一路径充满不确定性。因此，真正的和平不仅需要政治智慧，更需各方展现前所未有的战略耐心与务实态度。
Recently, several international relations experts have pointed out that the peaceful resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has reached a critical stage, yet one ‘hard bone’ remains to be cracked—the fundamental disagreement over territorial sovereignty. Since the full-scale escalation of the conflict in 2022, despite numerous rounds of negotiations and diplomatic efforts, Ukraine insists on restoring its 1991 borders, including Crimea and the Donbas region, while Russia considers these areas vital to its national security and refuses a full withdrawal. Experts argue that this core dispute involves not only legal and historical interpretations but also deep-seated national identities and geopolitical strategies. Without compromise on this issue, even progress in other areas—such as prisoner exchanges, humanitarian aid, or localized ceasefires—will fall short of achieving comprehensive peace. Some analysts suggest adopting a ‘frozen conflict’ approach similar to Cold War precedents: first securing a de facto ceasefire, then gradually addressing core disagreements through long-term dialogue. However, severe mutual distrust and intensified great-power rivalry significantly complicate this path. Thus, genuine peace demands not only political wisdom but also unprecedented strategic patience and pragmatism from all parties involved.
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