自2014年乌克兰东部顿巴斯地区爆发武装冲突以来，俄乌双方在该地区归属问题上始终未能达成共识。顿巴斯包括顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克两州，当地亲俄势力在俄罗斯支持下宣布‘独立’，而乌克兰政府则坚持其主权不可分割。尽管2015年《明斯克协议》试图通过停火、地方自治和特殊地位安排缓解紧张局势，但协议执行长期停滞，双方互信严重缺失。2022年俄罗斯对乌克兰发动全面军事行动后，顿巴斯成为主要战场之一。俄方宣称‘解放’该地区并随后举行所谓‘入俄公投’，单方面将其纳入版图，此举遭国际社会广泛谴责。乌克兰则誓言收复全部失地，包括顿巴斯。目前来看，俄乌在顿巴斯归属问题上立场尖锐对立：俄罗斯视其为‘历史领土’的一部分，乌克兰则强调国家统一与领土完整。在缺乏有效外交谈判机制、战争持续胶着的背景下，短期内双方就顿巴斯归属达成政治共识的可能性极低。未来解决路径或将取决于战场态势、国际调停力度以及双方国内政治走向。
Since the armed conflict erupted in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region in 2014, Russia and Ukraine have remained fundamentally divided over its status. Donbas—comprising the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts—saw pro-Russian separatists declare ‘independence’ with Moscow’s backing, while Kyiv insists on the indivisibility of its sovereignty. Although the 2015 Minsk Agreements aimed to ease tensions through a ceasefire, local autonomy, and special status provisions, implementation has stalled for years amid deep mutual distrust.Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Donbas became a major battlefield. Russia claimed it was ‘liberating’ the region and later staged so-called referendums to annex it—a move widely condemned by the international community. Ukraine, in turn, vows to reclaim all occupied territories, including Donbas.Currently, both sides hold irreconcilable positions: Russia frames Donbas as part of its ‘historical lands,’ while Ukraine upholds national unity and territorial integrity. With no effective diplomatic negotiation framework in place and the war remaining deadlocked, the prospects for a near-term political consensus on Donbas’s status appear extremely slim. Any future resolution will likely depend on battlefield developments, international mediation efforts, and domestic political dynamics within both countries.
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