近日，中国国际金融股份有限公司（中金公司）发布研究报告指出，当前人民币汇率并未出现明显低估。该观点基于对一篮子货币的实际有效汇率、购买力平价以及国际收支状况等多维度的综合分析。报告认为，尽管近期人民币对美元有所贬值，但考虑到美元整体走强及全球主要货币普遍承压的背景，人民币对一篮子货币的表现仍相对稳健。此外，中国经常账户保持顺差、外汇储备充足、经济基本面总体稳定，这些因素共同支撑了人民币汇率的合理均衡水平。中金强调，市场不应仅以对美元的双边汇率变动判断人民币估值，而应从更全面的视角评估其真实价值。这一判断有助于缓解市场对人民币“被低估”或存在“竞争性贬值”风险的担忧，也为政策制定者提供了理性参考。未来，随着中国经济结构持续优化和金融市场进一步开放，人民币汇率将更多由市场供需决定，双向波动将成为常态。
Recently, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released a research report stating that the renminbi (RMB) exchange rate is not significantly undervalued. This conclusion is based on a comprehensive analysis of multiple indicators, including the real effective exchange rate against a basket of currencies, purchasing power parity, and the country’s balance of payments. The report notes that although the RMB has depreciated somewhat against the U.S. dollar recently, it has remained relatively stable against a broader currency basket, especially considering the strong U.S. dollar and broad-based depreciation pressures faced by major global currencies. Furthermore, China’s sustained current account surplus, ample foreign exchange reserves, and overall stable economic fundamentals collectively support a reasonably balanced RMB valuation. CICC emphasizes that market participants should not assess RMB valuation solely based on its bilateral exchange rate against the dollar but should adopt a more holistic perspective. This assessment helps alleviate concerns about RMB undervaluation or risks of ‘competitive devaluation’ and offers a rational reference for policymakers. Looking ahead, as China continues to optimize its economic structure and further opens its financial markets, the RMB exchange rate will be increasingly driven by market supply and demand, with two-way fluctuations becoming the norm.
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