近年来，韩国经济的潜在增长率持续下滑，已降至2%以下。潜在增长率是指一国在不引发通货膨胀的前提下，依靠现有资源和技术所能实现的长期可持续经济增长速度。韩国央行和多家研究机构的数据显示，2020年代韩国的潜在增长率预计仅为1.5%至1.9%之间，远低于2000年代的4%以上水平。造成这一趋势的主要原因包括人口老龄化加速、劳动人口减少、生产率增长放缓以及创新动力不足。韩国是全球老龄化速度最快的国家之一，出生率长期处于世界最低水平，导致劳动力供给持续萎缩。同时，尽管韩国在科技和制造业方面具有优势，但近年来全要素生产率（TFP）提升缓慢，制约了整体经济增长潜力。此外，地缘政治风险、全球供应链重组以及对出口的高度依赖也使韩国经济更易受到外部冲击。为应对潜在增长率下降，韩国政府正推动结构性改革，包括鼓励技术创新、提高女性和老年人就业率、改善教育与职业培训体系等。然而，这些措施见效需要时间，短期内难以扭转增长放缓的趋势。专家普遍认为，韩国需从依赖投资与出口的增长模式，转向以创新驱动和内需拉动为主的高质量发展模式。
In recent years, South Korea’s potential economic growth rate has declined to below 2%. The potential growth rate refers to the maximum sustainable pace of economic expansion a country can achieve over the long term without triggering inflation, given its existing resources and technology. According to data from the Bank of Korea and various research institutions, South Korea’s potential growth rate in the 2020s is projected to be between 1.5% and 1.9%, significantly lower than the over 4% seen in the 2000s.Key drivers behind this downward trend include rapid population aging, a shrinking labor force, slowing productivity gains, and weakening innovation momentum. South Korea is among the fastest-aging societies globally, with one of the world’s lowest birth rates, leading to a continuous decline in labor supply. Although the country maintains strengths in technology and manufacturing, total factor productivity (TFP) growth has stagnated in recent years, limiting overall economic potential.Moreover, geopolitical risks, global supply chain realignments, and heavy reliance on exports make the Korean economy particularly vulnerable to external shocks. To counter this slowdown, the government is pursuing structural reforms—such as promoting technological innovation, increasing labor participation among women and seniors, and enhancing education and vocational training systems. However, these measures require time to yield results, and the deceleration in growth is unlikely to reverse in the short term. Experts widely agree that South Korea must transition from an investment- and export-driven model toward a high-quality, innovation- and domestic demand-led growth paradigm.
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