近期，以色列与伊朗之间的紧张关系再度升级，引发外界对以方可能再次打击伊朗的猜测。尽管双方未直接宣战，但通过代理人冲突、网络攻击和暗杀行动，两国已长期处于“影子战争”状态。以色列之所以考虑再次对伊朗采取军事行动，主要有三大原因：首先，伊朗持续推进其核计划，尽管受到国际制裁，但其铀浓缩活动不断突破《联合全面行动计划》（JCPOA）限制，令以色列深感安全威胁；其次，伊朗在中东地区扩大影响力，通过支持黎巴嫩真主党、也门胡塞武装及叙利亚政府军，构建“什叶派之弧”，直接威胁以色列北部与南部边境安全；第三，2024年4月伊朗曾首次直接空袭以色列本土，虽被拦截，但打破了以往间接对抗的模式，促使以色列认为必须展示强硬回击姿态以维持威慑力。此外，以色列国内政治压力、对美伊谈判前景的不信任，以及军方主张先发制人的战略思维，也推动其考虑采取进一步军事行动。然而，大规模冲突可能引发区域战争，因此以色列更可能选择精准打击伊朗在叙利亚或伊拉克的军事设施，而非直接攻击伊朗本土，以控制局势升级风险。
Tensions between Israel and Iran have recently escalated again, sparking speculation that Israel may launch another strike against Iran. Although neither side has formally declared war, they have long been engaged in a ‘shadow war’ through proxy conflicts, cyberattacks, and targeted assassinations. Israel’s consideration of renewed military action against Iran stems primarily from three factors: First, Iran continues advancing its nuclear program, enriching uranium beyond the limits set by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), despite international sanctions—posing a direct existential threat in Israel’s view. Second, Iran is expanding its regional influence by backing groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Syrian regime, thereby constructing a so-called ‘Shiite Crescent’ that directly threatens Israel’s northern and southern borders. Third, in April 2024, Iran launched its first-ever direct aerial attack on Israeli territory; although largely intercepted, this marked a dangerous shift from indirect confrontation and reinforced Israel’s belief that a strong retaliatory response is necessary to maintain deterrence. Domestic political pressures, skepticism toward U.S.-Iran diplomacy, and the Israeli military’s doctrine of preemptive strikes further fuel this stance. However, fearing a wider regional war, Israel is more likely to conduct precision strikes on Iranian assets in Syria or Iraq rather than directly target mainland Iran, aiming to contain escalation while asserting its strategic resolve.
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