根据国家气候中心最新发布的数据，2023年12月全国平均气温为-2.8℃，较常年同期偏高1.4℃，创下有气象记录以来历史同期第二高的纪录，仅次于2022年12月。这一异常偏暖现象主要受强厄尔尼诺事件、北极涛动正相位以及西太平洋副热带高压异常偏强等多重因素共同影响。气温显著偏高导致多地出现‘暖冬’特征，北方部分地区降雪明显偏少，南方则持续晴朗干燥。这种气候异常不仅影响了农业生产和能源需求，也对生态系统和人体健康带来潜在风险。例如，越冬害虫存活率上升可能增加来年病虫害压力；同时，干燥天气加剧了森林火险等级。气象专家提醒，尽管短期气温偏高令人感到舒适，但全球变暖背景下极端天气事件频发，公众仍需关注中长期气候变化趋势，加强防灾减灾意识。未来一个月，随着冷空气活动逐渐增强，全国大部地区气温将趋于正常或略偏低，但整体冬季是否偏暖还需结合1月和2月的数据综合判断。
According to the latest data released by China’s National Climate Center, the national average temperature in December 2023 was -2.8°C, which is 1.4°C above the long-term average for the same period—marking the second-warmest December on record since reliable meteorological observations began, just behind December 2022. This unusually warm condition resulted from a combination of factors, including a strong El Niño event, a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, and an abnormally strong western Pacific subtropical high.The significantly higher temperatures led to widespread ‘warm winter’ characteristics across the country, with notably reduced snowfall in parts of northern China and persistently dry, sunny weather in the south. Such climatic anomalies have impacted agricultural production and energy demand, while also posing potential risks to ecosystems and public health—for instance, increased overwintering pest survival rates may heighten pest and disease pressure next year, and dry conditions have elevated forest fire risks.Meteorologists caution that although short-term warmth may feel pleasant, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events under global warming demands heightened awareness. While cold air activity is expected to strengthen in the coming month—bringing temperatures closer to or slightly below normal across most regions—a definitive assessment of whether this winter as a whole will be warmer than average will depend on data from January and February.
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