近期多家国际机构预测，2024年全球油价或将呈现“先抑后扬”的走势。这一判断主要基于供需关系、地缘政治风险以及宏观经济环境的综合影响。上半年，全球经济复苏步伐放缓，尤其是中国和欧洲的需求增长不及预期，叠加美联储持续加息抑制通胀，导致能源消费疲软，油价承压下行。此外，美国页岩油产量稳步提升，OPEC+虽维持减产政策，但市场对供应过剩的担忧仍压制油价上行空间。然而进入下半年，随着主要经济体货币政策转向宽松、通胀压力缓解，市场风险偏好回升，能源需求有望回暖。同时，若中东等地缘政治紧张局势升级，或OPEC+进一步深化减产，都将为油价提供支撑。此外，全球能源转型背景下，传统油气投资不足也可能在中长期限制供应弹性。综合来看，2024年油价或在上半年震荡偏弱，下半年则随需求改善与供应收紧而逐步走强，整体呈现“先抑后扬”格局。
Several international institutions recently forecast that global oil prices in 2024 may follow a “decline-first, then rise” trend. This outlook is primarily driven by a combination of supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical risks, and the broader macroeconomic environment.In the first half of the year, slowing global economic recovery—particularly weaker-than-expected demand growth in China and Europe—alongside the U.S. Federal Reserve’s continued interest rate hikes to combat inflation, has dampened energy consumption and put downward pressure on oil prices. Moreover, steady increases in U.S. shale output, despite OPEC+ maintaining production cuts, have fueled concerns about potential oversupply, further limiting upside price momentum.However, in the second half, as major central banks shift toward more accommodative monetary policies and inflationary pressures ease, market sentiment is expected to improve, boosting energy demand. Additionally, any escalation in geopolitical tensions—especially in the Middle East—or deeper production cuts by OPEC+ could provide strong support for prices. Over the medium to long term, underinvestment in traditional oil and gas amid the global energy transition may also constrain supply flexibility.Overall, oil prices in 2024 are likely to remain weak or volatile in the first half but gradually strengthen in the second half as demand recovers and supply tightens, resulting in a “decline-first, then rise” pattern.
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