中金公司近日发布研究报告，预计到2026年，中国基础设施投资增速将稳定在4.5%左右。这一预测基于当前宏观经济环境、财政政策导向以及“十四五”规划中对新型基础设施和传统基建协同发展的战略部署。报告指出，尽管房地产投资持续承压，但政府通过专项债、政策性金融工具等手段加大对交通、水利、能源、城市更新及数字基础设施等领域的支持力度，有望支撑基建投资保持温和增长。此外，中金认为，未来几年基建投资将更加注重质量和效益，而非单纯追求规模扩张。绿色低碳、智慧城市、5G网络、新能源配套等“新基建”项目将成为重点方向。同时，地方政府债务风险管控趋严，也促使投资节奏更加理性。总体来看，4.5%的增速虽低于过去十年的平均水平，但在经济转型与高质量发展背景下，已属稳健且可持续的预期水平。
China International Capital Corporation (CICC) recently released a research report forecasting that China’s infrastructure investment growth will stabilize at around 4.5% by 2026. This projection is based on the current macroeconomic environment, fiscal policy direction, and the strategic emphasis in the 14th Five-Year Plan on coordinated development between traditional and new infrastructure.The report notes that although real estate investment continues to face downward pressure, government support—through special-purpose bonds and policy-backed financial instruments—is bolstering investment in transportation, water conservancy, energy, urban renewal, and digital infrastructure, thereby sustaining moderate growth in the sector.Moreover, CICC expects infrastructure investment in the coming years to prioritize quality and efficiency over sheer scale expansion. Key focus areas will include green and low-carbon projects, smart cities, 5G networks, and supporting facilities for renewable energy—collectively known as ‘new infrastructure.’ At the same time, stricter controls on local government debt risks are leading to more prudent investment pacing. Overall, while the projected 4.5% growth rate is lower than the average of the past decade, it represents a stable and sustainable outlook within the context of China’s economic transformation and pursuit of high-quality development.
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