2024年，美元正面临自2003年以来最严峻的年度表现。受美联储货币政策转向预期、全球经济格局变化以及非美货币逐步走强等多重因素影响，美元指数（DXY）持续承压。年初至今，美元对一篮子主要货币已累计下跌超过5%，若这一趋势延续至年底，将成为21世纪以来表现最差的一年。分析人士指出，美联储在经历2022–2023年的激进加息周期后，市场普遍预期其将在2024年下半年启动降息，这削弱了美元的利率优势。与此同时，欧洲央行和英国央行等主要央行维持相对鹰派立场，支撑欧元和英镑走强。此外，全球“去美元化”趋势虽缓慢但持续，部分国家增加本币结算和黄金储备，也在长期层面削弱美元霸权。不过，也有观点认为美元仍具韧性。作为全球最主要的储备和结算货币，美元在地缘政治动荡或市场恐慌时期仍是避险首选。因此，尽管2024年可能成为美元“最惨一年”，但其全球主导地位短期内难以被取代。
In 2024, the U.S. dollar is on track for its worst annual performance since 2003. Pressured by expectations of a Federal Reserve policy pivot, shifting global economic dynamics, and strengthening non-U.S. currencies, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been under sustained downward pressure. Year-to-date, the dollar has fallen more than 5% against a basket of major currencies—if this trend continues through year-end, it would mark the greenback’s weakest showing of the 21st century.Analysts note that after the Fed’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle in 2022–2023, markets widely anticipate interest rate cuts in the second half of 2024, eroding the dollar’s yield advantage. Meanwhile, central banks like the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have maintained relatively hawkish stances, bolstering the euro and British pound. Additionally, while gradual, the global trend toward ‘de-dollarization’—with some countries increasing local-currency trade settlements and gold reserves—is gradually undermining long-term dollar dominance.Still, many argue the dollar retains resilience. As the world’s primary reserve and transaction currency, it remains the go-to safe-haven asset during geopolitical turmoil or market stress. Thus, even if 2024 becomes the dollar’s ‘worst year’ in over two decades, its global hegemony is unlikely to be dethroned in the near term.
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