近期，国内十大头部券商陆续发布2024年中期投资策略报告，为市场参与者提供最新研判与配置建议。总体来看，多数券商对A股后市持谨慎乐观态度，认为在稳增长政策持续发力、企业盈利逐步修复的背景下，市场有望震荡上行。中信证券强调‘科技+消费’双轮驱动，建议关注人工智能、新能源车及可选消费板块；中金公司则看好高股息资产和国企改革主题，认为其具备防御性和估值优势。华泰证券指出，随着美联储加息周期接近尾声，外资回流A股趋势或将加速，利好核心资产。国泰君安提醒投资者注意结构性机会，聚焦业绩确定性强、估值合理的优质标的。此外，海通证券、招商证券等也普遍建议增配顺周期板块，如地产链、建材及金融等，以把握经济复苏带来的弹性机会。整体而言，券商策略虽各有侧重，但共识在于：当前市场处于政策底向市场底过渡阶段，宜采取均衡配置、逢低布局的思路，兼顾成长与价值。
Recently, China’s top ten securities firms have successively released their mid-year 2024 investment strategy reports, offering fresh insights and asset allocation recommendations for market participants. Overall, most brokers maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook on the A-share market, expecting a gradual upward trend supported by ongoing pro-growth policies and improving corporate earnings. CITIC Securities highlights a dual-driver strategy centered on ‘technology + consumption,’ recommending exposure to artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles, and discretionary consumer sectors. CICC favors high-dividend assets and state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform themes, citing their defensive characteristics and valuation appeal. Huatai Securities notes that as the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle nears an end, foreign capital is likely to return to A-shares, benefiting core assets. Guotai Junan cautions investors to focus on structural opportunities, prioritizing quality stocks with strong earnings visibility and reasonable valuations. Additionally, firms like Haitong Securities and China Merchants Securities generally suggest overweighting cyclical sectors—such as real estate-related chains, building materials, and financials—to capture upside from economic recovery. In summary, while strategies vary in emphasis, there is broad consensus: the market is transitioning from a policy bottom to a market bottom, warranting a balanced portfolio approach with strategic accumulation at dips, blending both growth and value.
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