特朗普的战略迷局：收缩还是扩张？唐纳德·特朗普在任期内推行的外交与安全政策常被外界视为矛盾重重。一方面，他高调倡导“美国优先”，主张从海外军事部署中撤军、减少对盟友的安全承诺，体现出明显的战略收缩倾向；另一方面，他又不断强化对华竞争、扩大对伊朗等国的制裁，并推动军费增长，展现出扩张性的一面。这种看似自相矛盾的策略，实则反映了其以交易主义为核心的现实主义逻辑：即通过制造不确定性来迫使对手让步，同时在国内塑造强硬形象以巩固政治基础。特朗普政府退出《巴黎协定》、伊核协议、世界卫生组织等多边机制，强调双边谈判而非多边合作，进一步凸显其对全球秩序的怀疑态度。然而，在印太地区，他却加强与日本、澳大利亚、印度等国的安全协作，试图构建围堵中国的战略网络。这种“选择性介入”策略既非全面收缩，也非传统意义上的全球扩张，而是一种高度功利、以利益为导向的地缘政治操作。因此，特朗普的战略并非简单的“收缩”或“扩张”，而是在全球影响力与国内政治诉求之间寻求一种动态平衡。这种迷局虽短期内提升了其支持率，但长期来看，可能削弱美国的联盟体系与制度领导力。
Trump’s Strategic Dilemma: Retrenchment or Expansion?Donald Trump’s foreign and security policies during his presidency were often perceived as contradictory. On one hand, he loudly championed an “America First” agenda—calling for troop withdrawals from overseas deployments and reducing security commitments to allies—signaling a clear inclination toward strategic retrenchment. On the other hand, he intensified competition with China, expanded sanctions against countries like Iran, and pushed for increased defense spending, revealing expansionist tendencies. This apparent paradox reflects a transactional, interest-driven realism: leveraging unpredictability to extract concessions from adversaries while cultivating a tough image domestically to shore up political support.The Trump administration’s withdrawal from multilateral frameworks—including the Paris Agreement, the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), and the World Health Organization—underscored its skepticism toward global governance, favoring bilateral deals over collective action. Yet in the Indo-Pacific, it deepened security cooperation with Japan, Australia, and India to counterbalance China’s rise. This “selective engagement” strategy was neither full-scale retrenchment nor traditional global expansion, but rather a pragmatic, interest-based geopolitical maneuver.Thus, Trump’s approach defies simple categorization as either contraction or expansion. Instead, it sought a dynamic balance between maintaining global influence and satisfying domestic political demands—a strategic ambiguity that may have boosted short-term popularity but risks eroding America’s alliance cohesion and institutional leadership over the long term.
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