近期，泰国与柬埔寨之间的关系呈现出一种微妙的‘不战不和’状态。尽管两国在历史上曾因边境争端、文化归属（如柏威夏寺主权争议）等问题多次发生摩擦，但近年来双方似乎有意维持一种低烈度、非对抗性的互动模式。这种状态并非完全和平，也未走向公开冲突，而是在外交克制与局部紧张之间寻求平衡。分析人士指出，泰方可能出于多重考量选择维持现状：一方面，避免激化矛盾有助于维护区域稳定，符合东盟整体利益；另一方面，国内政治局势复杂，政府不愿因外部冲突分散注意力或引发民族主义情绪失控。此外，经济合作与旅游往来仍是双边关系的重要支柱，全面对抗将损害双方实际利益。值得注意的是，泰国军方与政府在对柬政策上保持高度谨慎，既不主动挑衅，也不轻易让步。这种策略虽可短期维稳，但长期来看，若缺乏实质性对话机制，潜在矛盾仍可能在特定时机被重新点燃。因此，‘不战不和’更像是一种权宜之计，而非长久之策。
Recently, relations between Thailand and Cambodia have settled into a delicate state of ‘neither war nor peace.’ Although the two countries have historically experienced friction over border disputes and cultural heritage issues—such as the sovereignty dispute over Preah Vihear Temple—they now appear to deliberately maintain a low-intensity, non-confrontational dynamic. This condition is neither full peace nor open conflict, but rather a careful balance between diplomatic restraint and localized tensions.Analysts suggest that Thailand’s approach stems from multiple considerations: avoiding escalation helps preserve regional stability in line with ASEAN’s broader interests; domestically, the government seeks to avoid diverting attention from complex internal politics or triggering uncontrolled nationalist sentiment. Moreover, economic cooperation and tourism remain vital pillars of bilateral ties, making full-scale confrontation detrimental to both sides’ practical interests.Notably, Thailand’s military and civilian leadership exercise considerable caution in their Cambodia policy—neither provoking nor readily conceding ground. While this strategy may ensure short-term stability, the absence of substantive dialogue mechanisms means underlying tensions could reignite under specific circumstances. Thus, the current ‘neither war nor peace’ stance appears more like a temporary expedient than a sustainable long-term solution.
原创文章，作者：admin，如若转载，请注明出处：https://ktez.cn/3676.html