近期，A股市场持续回暖，主要股指企稳回升，成交量温和放大，市场情绪明显改善。随着稳增长政策陆续落地、外资回流以及年末资金面趋于宽松，投资者对‘跨年行情’的期待升温。所谓‘跨年行情’，通常指每年12月至次年春节前后，A股因流动性改善、政策利好和机构调仓等因素推动的一轮阶段性上涨。当前，经济数据边际好转、美联储加息周期接近尾声、国内资本市场改革持续推进，均为市场提供支撑。不过，专家也提醒，跨年行情虽有启动迹象，但仍需关注外部不确定性（如地缘政治、全球通胀）及内部结构性问题（如企业盈利修复节奏）。投资者应保持理性，结合自身风险偏好，合理布局优质资产，避免盲目追高。总体来看，A股正逐步走出前期低迷，跨年行情或已悄然开启，但其持续性与强度仍需后续政策与基本面进一步验证。
Recently, China’s A-share market has shown sustained signs of recovery, with major indices stabilizing and rebounding, trading volumes moderately increasing, and market sentiment noticeably improving. As pro-growth policies continue to roll out, foreign capital returns, and year-end liquidity conditions ease, investor expectations for a ‘year-end rally’ are rising. The so-called ‘year-end rally’ typically refers to a phase of market gains between December and the Chinese New Year, driven by improved liquidity, supportive policy measures, and institutional portfolio rebalancing. Currently, marginal improvements in economic data, the nearing end of the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike cycle, and ongoing domestic capital market reforms are all providing underlying support. However, experts caution that while early signs of a year-end rally are emerging, investors should remain mindful of external uncertainties—such as geopolitical tensions and global inflation—as well as domestic structural challenges, including the pace of corporate earnings recovery. Investors are advised to stay rational, align positions with their risk tolerance, and focus on high-quality assets rather than chasing short-term momentum.Overall, the A-share market appears to be gradually emerging from its earlier slump, and the year-end rally may already be underway—but its sustainability and strength will depend on further confirmation from policy developments and fundamental economic performance.
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